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Forum:2012 Pacific typhoon season
Future start Far from beginning, but I think we will have a pretty near-normal PTS this year, 23-27 storms, 12-16 typhoons, 5-9 major typhoons and 2 category 5 storms. Ryan1000 ''01:11, July 10, 2011 (UTC) First PTS betting pool is open. Betting Pools . 10L. 23:55, August 29, 2011 (UTC) September Has begun, but WPac is quiet atm. ''Ryan1000 17:55, September 1, 2012 (UTC) 17W.SANBA Tropical Depression 17W It should become a typhoon in 5 days.Isaac829 01:22, September 11, 2012 (UTC) Now named Karen by PAGASA, and Sanba by JMA. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 10:55, September 11, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Sanba Per the above comment. AndrewTalk To Me 11:03, September 11, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Sanba This could be another strong storm. Likely to head towards Japan and the Koreas. Ryan1000 16:30, September 12, 2012 (UTC) Probably will be the first cat 5 of the season.Allanjeffs 00:48, September 13, 2012 (UTC) : Now officially a typhoon for JMA, 960 mb atm.Isaac829 01:06, September 13, 2012 (UTC) ::: Sanba's taking off with a boom. Now up to 155 miles per hour and 910 mbars. Ties for strongest storm of the season. Ryan1000 15:37, September 13, 2012 (UTC) Now a Category 5 super typhoon, 910 mb. 15:43, September 13, 2012 (UTC) :Wow, what an incredible storm. It's awe-inspiring to see a storm like Sanba (even though it happens pretty much every year in WPac). This could hit South Korea as a C2 or C3. That would be bad news for the folks there. Ryan1000 15:47, September 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Sanba looks beautiful! Btw, I can't believe that Allanjeffs was right.--Isaac829 23:26, September 13, 2012 (UTC) ::At 205 km/h (10-min) and 900 mb. GOD! Sanba is already the strongest storm recorded anywhere on the globe since Megi two years ago, and just one more mb fall will make this the first storm since Megi to have a sub-900 mb pressure!!! Katrina, Yasi, Zoe, Allen and Rita must be getting scared, but TBH, Sanba fails in comparison to Forrest, Wilma, and Tip. AndrewTalk To Me 23:33, September 13, 2012 (UTC) 150kts (175mph) right now, probably won't go higher but nonetheless it's the biggest storm I've tracked. Definitely awesome. Yqt1001 (talk) 23:37, September 13, 2012 (UTC) this is one of the most beautiful storms I have track she looks Amazing btw why can`t you believe that I was right Isaac? I have been right a couple of times :)Allanjeffs 00:41, September 14, 2012 (UTC) Going down :( Isaac829 20:15, September 14, 2012 (UTC) : Yeah, falling apart now. Ryan1000 21:12, September 14, 2012 (UTC) : Should still be categorized as a super typhoon; "Sanba" became very intense in the past days. Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 13:11, September 15, 2012 (UTC) ::: JMA doesn't call it a "super" typhoon, anonymous. They only refer to it as Typhoon Sanba. JTWC calls it Super Typhoon Sanba, but they're unofficial. JMA is the official source and we should mark our headers as such. Anyways, Sanba's closing in on the Korean Peninsula and will likely hit as a C1 tonight or tomorrow morning. Ryan1000 20:34, September 16, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Sanba (2nd time) Going down after landfall.--Isaac829 21:58, September 17, 2012 (UTC) 18W.JELAWAT Tropical Depression 18W (Lawin) New one out now, after Sanba died out. Likely to be a slow-moving storm, but potentially could be strong in the long run. Ryan1000 14:23, September 20, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Jelawat It could be.Isaac829 19:39, September 20, 2012 (UTC) Now a severe tropical storm by JMA standards. AndrewTalk To Me 13:24, September 22, 2012 (UTC) This thing is getting ready to explode. It could easily be the second category 5 of the season. Ryan1000 23:17, September 22, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Jelawat Here we go.--Isaac829 01:37, September 23, 2012 (UTC) May become a cat 4 or cat 5 in the next two to three days.Allanjeffs 03:37, September 23, 2012 (UTC) Jelawat is going through a classic WPAC round of explosive intensification. It's at 115 mph (both 10-min and 1-min) and 925 mb. AndrewTalk To Me 13:38, September 23, 2012 (UTC) It seems that the Korean Peninsula could once again get hit in the long run. They've never seen so many tropical cyclones impact them in one season. Of course, it will likely be only hit as a C2/C1 by then, but it's not negligible. Ryan1000 14:13, September 23, 2012 (UTC) Off topic, but, when was the last time five tropical cyclones hit Korea in a single year (assuming Jelawat does so)? AndrewTalk To Me 16:55, September 23, 2012 (UTC) I don't think the was a "last time". Isaac829 17:03, September 23, 2012 (UTC) Jelawat's a super typhoon!Isaac829 20:24, September 23, 2012 (UTC) Jelawat is one mighty superstorm. It's up to 150 mph now and forecast to be a cat 5 tomorrow. This storm will likely begin weakening when it approaches South Korea in 4-5 days, but it probrably won't hit anyone else. It's far enough offshore from the Philipines to not cause significant damage. They'll get some surf and rain, but nothing severe. Some of the islands in the Pacific might also need to watch out. Ryan1000 23:33, September 23, 2012 (UTC) : Now a Category 5, second to Sanba earlier last week. One-minute winds of 160mph (260km/h), ten-minute winds of 125mph (205km/h) and pressure of 905 mb. 02:23, September 25, 2012 (UTC) ::: Down to a Category 4, but maintaining 905 mb, with winds of 155 mph (250 kph). Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 14:38, September 26, 2012 (UTC) Insane, back to back category 5's in the WPAC (in the similar area as well!). The only 2 globally yet. Both put on amazing explosive intensification shows as well, shows how insane the WPAC is a holding heat. Yqt1001 (talk) 03:29, September 27, 2012 (UTC) It's not unheard of in this basin, and by no means is it a record, but it's incredible to behold either way. It looks like Korea actually might evade Jelawat in the long run. Might be a different story for Japan though...Stay tuned. Ryan1000 03:45, September 27, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Jelawat (2nd time) *sigh*--Isaac829 01:02, October 1, 2012 (UTC) Post-tropical cyclone Jelawat Gone. Ryan1000 16:39, October 1, 2012 (UTC) It was a good storm to track.Isaac829 23:29, October 1, 2012 (UTC) Still active, currently in the Bering Strait. Kiewii! 17:41, October 7, 2012 (UTC) Are any Alaska effects going to happen? AndrewTalk To Me 21:10, October 7, 2012 (UTC) :It's been affecting Alaska for the past week or so actually. But it's just a little weak low pressure system that's about to dissipate. So for the last time, goodbye Jelawat. Kiewii! 23:47, October 7, 2012 (UTC) 19W.EWINIAR Tropical Storm Ewiniar New one out, to the northeast of Jelawat, but likely won't do much other than be a weak TS heading out to sea. Ryan1000 16:10, September 24, 2012 (UTC) Looks like Ewiniar has peaked. Simlover123 (talk) 00:51, September 29, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Ewiniar Fishie.Isaac829 02:05, September 30, 2012 (UTC) 20W.MALIKSI Tropical Depression 20W New one out, in the wake of Ewiniar. Will probrably follow in his footsteps and be a fishie, but could become Typhoon Maliksi on the way. Ryan1000 16:00, September 30, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Maliksi Now Maliksi. Could be a typhoon soon. Ryan1000 16:33, October 1, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of Maliksi Long dead. Ryan1000 18:32, October 6, 2012 (UTC) October 21W.GAEMI Tropical Depression 21W Currently in the South China Sea, but will last a while as a TS before heading to Vietnam. Ryan1000 16:33, October 1, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Gaemi I don't think this would be strong at all.Isaac829 19:50, October 1, 2012 (UTC) : Now named Marce by PAGASA.Isaac829 22:38, October 2, 2012 (UTC). ::: Made landfall now. Might die soon. Ryan1000 18:32, October 6, 2012 (UTC) 22W.PRAPIROON Tropical Storm Prapiroon (Nina) A tropical depression becomes Tropical Storm Prapiroon to the east of the Philippines. I don't have very much information about its future though. STO12 (talk) 15:20, October 7, 2012 (UTC) Expected to hit 55 kts. AndrewTalk To Me 16:38, October 7, 2012 (UTC) Hmm...This could eventually become another major (or super) typhoon and recurve north while east of the Philipines. I think Japan and the Koreas are Prapiroon's targets in the long run. I hope it doesn't head there though. They've gone through enough this season. Ryan1000 20:46, October 7, 2012 (UTC) Prapiroon is now a Severe Tropical Storm, it is most likely to become a typhoon. STO12 (talk) 03:39, October 8, 2012 (UTC) PAGASA has now named Prapiroon Nina, and it is now expected to 85 kts. (BTW, I edited the header) AndrewTalk To Me 11:59, October 8, 2012 (UTC) Typhoon Prapiroon That was quick.Isaac829 20:33, October 8, 2012 (UTC) I guess we can include the PAGASA name too. It could become a cat 3 before recurving out to sea. Ryan1000 14:24, October 9, 2012 (UTC) And...it's a major. It could maybe become a cat 4 as well, but i'm not sure about cat 5. It'll be heading out to sea soon enough. Ryan1000 17:20, October 10, 2012 (UTC) : Now down to a Cat 1. 11:01, October 13, 2012 (UTC) ::: It'll continue powering down as it gradually heads out to sea. I knew Prapiroon wouldn't significantly affect land. Ryan1000 17:39, October 13, 2012 (UTC) ::::: JMA's forecast heads west, JTWC's heads northeast.Isaac829 18:21, October 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Storm Prapiroon (2nd time) It hasn't moved much.--Isaac829 19:44, October 16, 2012 (UTC) This thing has been sitting around in WPac for a while, but without doing too much. When Prapiroon and Maria die out sometime tomorrow, it will be the first time in forever we haven't seen a single storm active worldwide. Then again, we'll get a new AOI in the southwest Caribbean by early next week and that could become Sandy. Also, there's a cluster of thunderstorms off the end of a decaying cold front near the Bahamas, which could also become named like Patty did if holds on well enough. Ryan1000 14:16, October 18, 2012 (UTC) 23W.MARIA Tropical Storm Maria We have Maria in the Western Pacific. Winds: 40 mph Pressure: 1002 mbar. STO12 (talk) 14:41, October 14, 2012 (UTC) Not expecting much out of this one. Ryan1000 16:05, October 14, 2012 (UTC) Neither am I. AndrewTalk To Me 16:27, October 14, 2012 (UTC) Neither am I. Isaac829 16:31, October 14, 2012 (UTC) Same here. Like Maria of 2011 ATL. LOOOOOL IM JK probably the patty of typhoon land :D 18:22, October 14, 2012 (UTC) This is just a re-Maliski, a storm that just stole a name off the list. Prapiroon isn't affecting land either, but it lived longer than I expected. Ryan1000 22:21, October 14, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Here's my predictions: *Pakhar - 10% - Not too much damage, or not enough deaths. *Sanvu - 0% - Never touched any landmass. *Mawar - <10% - Not so much damage created. **Ambo - 5% - Probably not. *Guchol - 35% - 27 deaths and evacs, but Talas didn't retired last year, so this shouldn't either. **Butchoy - 0% - Barely affect(ed) the Philippines. *Talim - 15% - Only some crops. **Carina - 0% - No. *Doksuri - 40% - Not that much. **Dindo - 30% - Not sure that's enough to make the name retire. *Khanun - 50% - Lots of damage in DPRK. **Enteng - 0% - No effects. *Vicente - 45% - Less damage than I thought. **Ferdie - 30% - Wasn't that bad. *Saola - 60% - Quite some damage. **Gener - 20% - Maybe. *Damrey - 45% - See Vicente. *Haikui - 80% - Lots of damage in the Philippines, yet so far away. And the damage in China. *Kirogi - 0% - No impacts at all. *Kai-tak - 30% - Not bad. **Helen - 20% - Haikui was worse. *Tembin - 30% - Meh. **Igme - 0% - Nope. *Bolaven - 55% - Quite some damage in both Koreas. **Julian - 0% - Nah. *Sanba - 45% - Some waves in Korea. **Karen - 20% - Some flooding, but I dont see this retiring. *Jelawat - ? **Lawin - 15% - Just rain. *Ewiniar - 0% - I don't think so. *Maliksi - 0% - Per above. *Gaemi - 5% - Probably less damage than Pakhar. **Marce - 0% - Just a little rain. *Prapiroon - ? **Nina - ? *Maria - 0% - Nah. Isaac829 15:39, October 14, 2012 (UTC) : Little too soon, don't you think? Pakhar may cause severe flooding in Vietnam in the future, but I think i'll wait until later to post my predictions. Ryan1000 13:28, March 29, 2012 (UTC) Mine: JMA: #Pakhar - 5% - Not that extreme. #Sanvu - 0% - No. #Mawar - 1% - I doubt it. #Guchol - 5% - Yes, there were some effects, but not that bad. #Talim - 10% - Another possible one, but not that likely. #Doksuri - 25% - More damaging then Talim, so it has a possible chance. #Khanun - 70% - South Korea might consider this damaging, and it is. #Vincente - 40% - A scare for Hong Kong, but it could've been much worse. #Soala - 30% - Hit me in China, but outshadowed by Damrey and Haikui. #Damrey - 45% - Also hit me, but Haikui has a better chance of going. #Haikui - 90% - Damaged my relative's houses, combined with its other damage, yes. #Kirogi - 0% - See Sanvu's section. #Kai-tak - 30% - Maybe so. #Tembin - 75% - Caused the effects in Taiwan. #Bolaven - 80% - Rare Russia cyclone, and also hit me and lots of other places. #Sanba - 70% - Strong storm both meteorologically and impactwise. #Jelawat - 40% - Another storm with a possible chance. #Ewiniar - 0% - See Sanvu and Kirogi's sections. #Maliksi - 0% - See Sanvu, Kirogi, and Ewiniar's sections. #Gaemi - 1% - See Mawar's section. #Prapiroon - TBA - Still Active PAGASA: #Ambo - 2% - Some effects, but the Philippines has seen much worse. #Butchoy - 0% - Had no Philippine effects. #Carina - 0% - No Cosme here. #Dindo - 4% - I still doubt Dindo will go. #Enteng - 0% - Had no Philippine effects. #Ferdie - 2% - Minor Philippine effects. #Gener - 1% - Some moderate effects in the Philippines. #Helen - 30% - Not that damaging. #Igme - 1% - What did the Philippines see? #Julian - 0% - See Butchoy's section. #Karen - 0% - See Butchoy and Julian's sections. #Lawin - 1% - See Igme's section. #Marce - <1% - See Butchoy, Julian, and Karen's sections. #Nina - TBA - Still Active --AndrewTalk To Me 15:16, March 31, 2012 (UTC) : Are you sure about giving 3% to Khanun?Isaac829 16:09, August 14, 2012 (UTC) Here's mine: JMA: *Pakhar - 1% - Very little chance. *Sanvu - 0% - No. *Mawar - 0% - No chance. *Guchol - 20% - Has small chances of retirement. *Talim - 0% - I doubt it. *Doksuri - 5% - I don't think so. *Khanun - 70% - Lots of damage and deaths in DPRK, maybe a candidate for retirement. I didn't expect that to happen though. *Vicente - 50% - Wow, shocked me a lot when intensified to a Category 4, but has less damage. Though damage is considerably light as of now, China or Hong Kong may request Vicente to be retired. So it's a 50/50 for me. *Saola - 35% - Moderate damage in Taiwan and the Philippines, so there is a very slim chance that Saola may be retired. *Damrey - 10% - I don't think so. *Haikui - 85% - Philippines: severely affected; China: also affected; so, there's a very big chance of retirement for Haikui. *Kirogi - 0% - see Talim. *Kai-tak - 10% - Maybe no. *Tembin - 35% - I don't think so, but who knows? Maybe Taiwan may request for Tembin to be retired. *Bolaven - 60% - Significant damages in the Korean Peninsula (North and South Korea), so it has chances of retirement in the long run. *Sanba - 20% - There are chances that this may be retired; it's a very intense storm, and had effects in the Korean Peninsula and Japan *Jelawat - 5% - No reported damages, but still a Cat 5. *Ewiniar - 0% - see Kirogi. *Maliksi - 0% - per above. *Gaemi - 5% - Only some significant effects in Vietnam and the Philippines. *Prapiroon - ?? - Still active. PAGASA: *Ambo - 0% - No. *Butchoy - 0% - I really doubt it. *Carina - 0% - No damage in the Philippines. A fish. *Dindo - 0% - I don't think so, another fish. *Enteng - 0% - Barely affected the Philippines. *Ferdie - 0% - Not that much damage. *Gener - 30% - Maybe? But damages and deaths were not as high as compared to the previous storms that affected the islands. *Helen - 60% - P500 million damages, but not enough. *Igme - 0% - Stayed in the Philippines for a while, but no significant effects. *Julian - 0% - No. Not at all. *Karen - 0.1% - An intense typhoon, but no effects on Philippine land. *Lawin - 0.01% - Per above. *Marce - 2% - Caused some rainfall in the Philippines, but only slight effects. *Nina - 0% - Doubt it. No damages in the Philippines. - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 11:03, September 22, 2012 (UTC) Well, now that we have quite a few storms, here's mine: JMA names: *Pakhar - 5% - Nothing too severe. *Sanvu - 0% - Not a chance. *Mawar - 0% - As with Sanvu. *Guchol - 10% - I won't say it did nothing, but if Talas wasn't retired last year for 73 deaths and 600 million in damage, Guchol doesn't stand a chance. *Talim - 0% - Nah. *Doksuri - 1% - Won't say it was a complete fish, but still no retirement here. *Khanun - 65% - Pretty bad, but not too sure...Korea's seen worse. *Vicente - 55% - It was destructive and it has a shot of retirement, but the thing that shocks me most about Vicente is how much worse it could've been. This was probrably the closest call China has seen in a long time. *Saola - 25% - Caused some flooding in Taiwan, but not extremely bad. *Damrey - 10% - This ended up being interesting for China, but at least it missed Shanghai and overall damage wasn't too severe. *Haikui - 85% - Another storm for China, and by golly, what a storm. I never knew it was this bad. This thing sat over China for several days, and although only 19 or so people died, 2 billion dollars in damage isn't anything to laugh at. This thing has a serious chance of retirement, and also the only storm named Haikui, having replaced 2005's Longwang. *Kirogi - 0% - What's that now? *Kai-Tak - 35% - Something reasonable, but nothing severe. *Tembin - 35% - Not as severe as Bolaven. *Bolaven - 50% - Kind of a toss-up. It was bad, though they've seen worse. Certainly has a shot though. *Sanba - 30% - 379 million and 2 deaths. We'll see. *Jelawat - 20% - Nothing exceptionally severe. *Ewiniar - 0% - Nothing expected out of this. *Maliksi - 0% - Doubting it already. *Gaemi - <5% - Probrably nothing severe in Vietnam. *Prapiroon - 0% - Fishie. *Maria - 0% - Doubt it already. PAGASA names: *Ambo - 1% - Not very likely to happen. *Butchoy - 0% - Hardly any damage in the Philippines. *Carina -No damage to the islands. *Dindo - See Carina. *Enteng - Not a chance. *Ferdie - 5% - Not as bad as other storms. *Gener - 10% - As with Ferdie. *Helen - 30% - Something, but not devastating. Has a shot considering their standards though. *Igme - 0% - No damage to the islands. *Julian - 0% - Again, nothing to the Philipines. *Karen - <5% - No big impacts in the Philipines. *Lawin - 0% - Not a scratch to the islands. *Marce - 0% - Nothing to the Philipines. *Nina - 0% - Not expected to hit the islands. Impressive season thus far, but not as bad as it could've been, especially with Vicente. The Philippines were much luckier than last year, that's for sure. Ryan1000 02:44, August 13, 2012 (UTC) :Ryan, are you sure about 0% for Khanun? It worsened a nasty flooding situation in North Korea that has killed at least 169 people. http://www.bnonews.com/inbox/?id=1007 --HurricaneMaker99 19:17, August 13, 2012 (UTC) ::Ryan, are you really sure about what you gave to Khanun? - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 12:12, August 16, 2012 (UTC) :::Sorry, I was looking at a completely different storm. Couldn't say no to that, but not 100%. Ryan1000 00:24, August 22, 2012 (UTC)